Pre De L’Arc De Triomphe Group 1)
October 6, 2012
The excitement normally generated in the build up the Arc looked to be waning with the news that Snow Fairy and Nathaniel were both ruled out with injury. Add in Danedream’s absence (not allowed travel due to an outbreak of swamp fever at Cologne racecourse where she’s stabled) and we had lost three major fancies. It looked to be turning into a flat build up to say the least.
We knew on Monday Joseph wouldn’t be asked to do the weight of 8-11 if Camelot stood his ground we wondered if he runs then who? Bang, Aidan O’Brien confirms Camelot with Frankie on board. Wow. Excitement and intrigue were back on full throttle. At Leopardstown in the Irish Champion Stakes Frankie displayed he is still on top of his game giving Snow Fairy a wonderful ride. Ballydoyle like to use the best available and they’ve certainly got that. Unexpected yes but not unprecedented, the combo won the 2005 St Leger with Scorpion.
Camelot’s participation was in doubt but his work on Tuesday was good enough to send him to Paris. He must now emulate the feat of Alleged in 1977, beaten in the Leger he went on to win the first of his to Arc’s. There is no doubt Camelot is the star of the classic generation, a Guineas and two Derby are testament. He’s a fast ground horse. He hated the ground at Newmarket and the Curragh but class saw him through. He’s been asked to do it again now on Paris turf now described as heavy after the second race today. Pat Smullen called it dead after riding in it.
A win for Orfevre will push his earning close to the £10 m mark. That will be a nice bit of cash off 14 run’s. Bar the last one that’s all been won in his native homeland of Japan. He’s a winner eight times including five Group 1’s and a Japanese triple crown, all on fast ground with the exception of The Japanese Derby last year on soft. Tokyo’s soft and Paris heavy will be two different things. He showed his class in the Prix Foy (his first run since June) where off a slow pace he quickened nicely in the last five furlongs easily accounting for Meandre on G/S.
St Nicholas Abbey won’t love it either. You’ll have to go back to his maiden victory to find his last win on ground described as heavy. He will be suited by this trip, more so than the 10f in the Irish Champion Stakes and he’ll be given a patient ride to be wound up and come late.
You’d imagine the surface has also put paid to the chances of Shareta. She loved it here last year chasing home Danedream on the unseasonal firm ground and at York when beating The Fugue. She did win the Prix Vermeille on G/S but her hopes are surely gone on the dead.
Saonois won the Prix Neil from Bayrir. Maybe he was actually the best horse in the French Derby after all. He looked a fortunate winner on that occasion but this performance put’s him in the mix and if it is run slow and turns into a sprint he’ll be in with a shout. It could still be a good weekend for Lady Rothschild, Mince won at Ascot today, even without Nathaniel. Her filly Great Heavens has had a super season remaining unbeaten in five runs including last time out in the Irish Oaks. The soft ground will be very much in her favour. This will also apply to Sea Moon whose best performance came on G/S in last years Great Voltigeur when an 8 L winner.
Godolphin’s new kid on the block, Mickael Barzalona rides the Andre Fabre trained Masterstroke. He’s comes here in typical Fabre fashion, looking for his seventh Arc the master has built him gently through the season culminating with a G 2 in at Deauville. The softer the better for him.
The Japanese run a pacemaker in Aventino and Ballydoyle take no chances either running two, Robin Hood and Earnest Hemingway. The latter is intriguing, This will only be his third run, a very impressive maiden win on the Dundalk polytrack sent him off favourite for the Dante where he trailed in last. We haven’t seen him since May and he is also well drawn in stall 4 so if he takes it up when Robin Hood falls away and is given a soft lead it’s conceivable he may be hard to reel in.
If he is reeled in then it may well be a masterstroke to have Frankie Dettori on board Camelot where the class of both may get through the dead ground.
Recommendation :
Camelot 7/2 win & Earnest Hemingway 250/1 Ew
