If you’d invested €1 in Enable in the Cheshire Oaks and reinvested in each of her twelve run’s since, you’d have a pot of €2,498 going on to her for this, would you be nervous?

The smallest field since 2007 will contest this year’s Arc on soft ground, let’s go through them.

2. Waldgeist 5 yo (Drawn 3)

(8 wins from 20 runs, Triple G1 winner) 20/1

Tough older horse, fourth in this last year, beaten 1¾L by Enable, looked good in the spring taking the Prix Ganay in good style (Ghaiyyath turned over at 1/2F in third), no match for Crystal Ocean or Magical at Ascot in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot or on return for the King George when third to Enable and Crystal Ocean, since got a confidence booster taking the Prix Foy in easy style from Way To Paris, very good colt, has mixed it with the best but three times beaten by Enable.

3. Ghaiyyath 4 yo (Drawn 12)

(5 wins from 7 runs, G1 winner) 12/1

Promises yet to be fulfilled, he’s a first runner in the race for Charlie Appleby. He’d a light juvenile career culminating in a G3 Autumn Stakes win at Newmarket, only the one run at three, a G3 win here last September, came back in early April to win G2 Prix d’Harcourt impressively then flopped in Prix Ganay later in the month, maybe it came too soon, then imperious best in Germany, a 14L winner of G1 Grosser Preis von Baden over 1m4f on the 1st September, could still fulfil the promise.

4. Kiseki 5 yo (Drawn 7)

(2 wins from 14 runs, G1 winner) 150/1

Mixed it with the best at home in Japan, winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St.Leger) in 2017, third in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) over 1m2f last October followed by second to Almond Eye in the G1 Japan Cup over 1m4f in November, this year runner up in a pair of G1’s, the Osaka Hai and Takarazuka Kinen both at Hanshin, before running third to Waldgeist in the Prix Foy, better than the bare form of the Foy.

5. Blast Onepiece 4 yo (Drawn 4)

(4 wins from 8 runs, G1 winner) 66/1

Winner of the last year’s Arima Kinen (Kiseki 3¾L back in fifth), the Grand Prix of Japan run in December is a race held with the same affection as the Grand National in England, the public get a say on who participates in it, then only sixth when favourite in the Osaka Hai in March, flopping again at G2 level in May when again going off favourite, then won the G2 Sapporo Kinen in August.

6. Fierement 4 yo (Drawn 2)

(2 wins from 7 runs, Double G1 winner) 50/1

A stayer who won the Kikuka Sho last October over 1m7f , then second in a G2 over 1m3f in January, bounced back in the Tenno Sho (Spring) over 2m in April, was third behind Blast Onepiece in the G2 Sapporo Kinen.

7. Nagano Gold 5 yo (Drawn 11)

(6 wins from 18 runs) 80/1

A rare representative from the Czech Republic, unlucky in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot when beaten a ½L by Defoe, ran in G2 at Deauville, only managed third, will relish a stamina battle and any ease in the ground.

8. Enable 5 yo (Drawn 9)

(13 wins from 14 runs, 10 G1 wins) 4/6F

The Queen, goes for her third Arc a feat never achieved before, beaten only once on her second start, she’s since gone twelve unbeaten, the Cheshire Oaks, Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks, King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, September Stakes, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Breeders’ Cup Turf, Coral-Eclipse, King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, ten of them G1’s, will she win her eleventh?.

9. Magical 4 yo (Drawn 8)

(8 wins from 19 runs, Triple G1 winner) 12/1

Went off a 40/1 shot for this last year, had been knocking on the G1 door but best win was as a juvenile when winning the G2 Debutante Stakes, after this went onto Ascot to win G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, then second to Enable beaten ¾L in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf at Churchill Downs, three wins at home this year including the G1 Tattersall’s Gold Cup before going down to Crystal Ocean in the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, similarly placed in the G1 Coral-Eclipse behind Enable and again behind her in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks, she came good on home turf in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes when winning with authority, like Waldgeist, she’s suffered defeat three times at the hands of Enable.

10. Japan 3 yo (Drawn 10)

(5 wins from 8 runs, Double G1 winner) 6/1

Considered the pick of the Ballydoyle pair, he announced himself winning the G2 Beresford Stakes last year at the Curragh, the Derby came too soon yet he still got up to be third, since he’s unbeaten, he took G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, then G1 Grand Prix de Paris and topped that off with a scintillating performance to beat Crystal Ocean in the G1 Juddmonte International at York in August, form that puts him right there with Enable, still on the up.

11. Soft Light 3 yo (Drawn 6)

(1 win from 7 runs) 125/1

Supplemented for this at a cost of €120,000, his best form came in his last three runs, a pair of G2 seconds sandwiched a 4L fifth to Japan in the Grand Prix de Paris. He’s an awful lot to do to recoup the investment made.

12. Sottsass 3 yo (Drawn 1)

(4 wins from 6 runs, G1 winner) 7/1

The home defense rests here, his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has waxed lyrically about him in the build-up this week comparing him very favourably with Almanzour, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club, Irish Champion Stakes and English Champion Stakes in 2016. Scottass likewise won the French Derby beating Persian King readily who’d previously won the French 2000 Guineas, we’ve not seen Persian King since but he was a top-class two-year-old, those comparisons with Almanzor twice a conquerer of Found, the 2016 winner brings him into it.

Conclusion

Arc’s don’t come easy, yet this may on paper may be an easier assignment than last year or the year before for Enable, a smaller field means less scrummaging coming into the straight, the draw less significant.

She’s in receipt of 3 lbs from the older colts, giving 3 lbs to the younger 3yo colts, no 3yo fillies this year, beneficiaries of both the weight for age and sex allowance in the past, the draw, the killer for the ill-fated Sea Of Class last year when just failing to catch Enable.

Kiseki will try to set the pace along with Fierement, Ghaiyyath drawn widest will have to use petrol to track across, he’ll likely sit third with the rest settling in behind.

Rounding the final bend, Ghaiyyath will go for it, trying to squeeze the pace, the best of the Japanese trio Blast Onepiece, will come at him, the Irish pair will join the fray, Magical, a far better athlete than this time last year, will stretch with Japan on her hindquarters.

Late on, Sottsass, drawn on the inner will force a way out to tackle the Ballydoyle pair, Enable, drawn nine, will come wide to mow them down, her class, her sheer will to win, those battling qualities will get Frankie out of trouble, Sottass and Magical can follow her home.

No need to be nervous if you were lucky enough to have turned your €1 into €2,498, it’s about to become €4,163.

Recommendation:

1. Enable

2. Scottass

3. Magical

(Tricast Enable to beat the other two in either order)