Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1)

The Arc is upon us, possibly the best race of the season.

17 go to post with 8 Three-year-olds meeting 9 older horses. The younger horses get the advantage of weight for age, with fillies also benefiting from a sex allowance.

The market suggests Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk can capitalise on that advantage to come out on top today. She’s had a magnificent year, winning four Oaks, The Cheshire, Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks were all won easily. She is drawn in stall one, which might be the only thing that stops her from winning today.

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The ground will be deep, riding very soft, and it will take some getting.

A trio of Japanese horses, all colts —Alohi Alii, Byzantine Dream, and Croix du Nord — will try to do what no other Japanese runner has managed to do: win this most prestigious prize. The latter holds a strong hand, a winner of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in June. He had a short head to spare over Daryz when prepping for this in the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange over 1m2f.

Ballydoyle also sends Los Angeles, third last year; his season has been geared towards this. Aidan has had a difficult time getting him right this year; however, he feels he can come on a lot from his 2¾L length defeat in the Prix Foy. That was won by Byzantine Dream with Sosie second.

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Also travelling from Ireland are Hotazhell and White Birch. Both contested the Irish Champion Stakes last time out, finishing fourth and fifth. The former will try this distance for the first time, the latter hasn’t run over the trip for two years, and both will love the ground.

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The French have a solid defence. Aventure was second last year and has had a very good preparation when beating Gezora in the G1 Prix Vermeille four weeks ago. Daryz and Sosie, fourth last year, were both beaten by the Japanese in their trials. Quisisana was a good winner of the G1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville, and Andre Fabre’s Cualificar won his prep in good style, the G2 Prix Niel.

Kalpana has been kept in training specifically with this in mind. She hasn’t won since taking the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes last October; however, she can’t be ruled out. She was beaten by Giavellotto at Kempton in her prep, the G3 September Stakes at Kempton, but the run should put her right for this.

Conclusion

As ever, a deep race, the draw is not ideal for Minnie Hauk, she could caught behind, in a pocket; however, Christophe Smoullion will be wide to that, and he can prove that she is a superstar. Los Angeles can place again.

Recommendation

Minnie Hauk 4/1 win

Los Angeles 33/1 ew

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