QIPCO Falmouth Stakes (G 1)
July 9, 2015
Avenir Certain running out the winner of the Poule D’Essai Des Pouliches last May at Lonchamp. Picture courtesy of Getty Images and Alan Crowhurst.
This could be a very French affair with 3 crossing the water. Andre Farbe sends Fintry, Avenir Certain comes from the Jean Claude Roguet yard and Bawina from the Carlos Laffon-Parias stable.
Their recent form is closely interlinked. Fintry beat Avenir Certain in a G3 in June, a run that was a big step the latter’s first run back of the season when she was seventh of eight behind Bawina in the Prix Du Muget in May. Previous to that Avenir Certain ran 6 1/2 L behind Treve in the Arc recording her first loss having run up a six race winning sequence previously including the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. There’s no other filly in this field to show anything to match that three-year old form but the runs this year questions if the enthusiasm she had last year remains.
Lucida will go off favourite on the back of her second to Lagatissimo in the Guineas and her 3rd in the Cornation Stakes Ervedya. That form is beginning to wilt a little with Lagatissiomo’s defeats in the Oaks and Pretty Polly Stakes since.
The home team of Amazing Maria, Arabian Queen and Euro Charline all need to put in career best runs to prevail here though it’s worth noting Euro Charline did win a G1 on fast ground at Woodbine last backend.
With the French likely to dominate the call is to rely on the dual classic winner to show she has retained that enthusiasm and to once again regain winning ways.
Recommendation : Avenir Certain 7/2 win
