The Breeders Cup
November 3, 2012
The degree of difficulty for European horses in winning a Breeders Cup race was again highlighted last night when only Flotilla could manage the feat.
End of season, travel, a fast turf surface and an unfamiliar dirt one nevermind meeting the best of the Americans all combine to make the venture near impossible. That said near impossible is what makes it so worthwhile when the feat is pulled off.
Chances do come in the Juvenile Turf where Aidan O’Brien runs two and Jeremy Noseda, Roger Charlton and Mahood Al Zaronni also represent the UK. The American horse Joha is the only winner at the highest level having taken the Grade 1 Fururity at Keenland on the polytrack last time out. This does give the euros some opportunity and of them the chances may fall best to George Vancouver and Lines Of Battle with the latter preferred due to the booking of Richard Hughes who can handle getting his mount from a wide draw in position on the outside around the final turn to come with a clean run. As we saw with The Fugue last night up the inside on this tight Santa Anita Turf course means being trapped.
It’s disappointing that in the Turf Sprint the only Euro is Starspangledbanner. A failure in the stud barn he was brought back to the racecourse to earn his keep. Drawn 14 makes this impossible. He has a chance of coming good again and reaching the heights he displayed when winning the 2010 Golden Jubilee and July Cup but we won’t see it until next year.
In the Breeders Cup Turf AOB sends St Nicholas Abbey to defend his crown accompanied by Treasure Beach while Shareta from the Alain De Royer-Dupre represent France. There’s a chance Treasure Beach can turn the tables on Point Of Entry where he ran second at Belmont last time out in the Joe Hirsh. It was certainly his best performance since winning the Irish Derby but the fear is he’ll be sacrificed as a pacemaker for St Nicholas Abbey who’ll have to overcome a short break since the Arc and more importantly a short straight on this course which could well be too much to overcome. The safer option then is Shareta, she loved the quick ground when overcoming The Fugue in the Yorkshire Oaks and will relish a fast pace. Christophe “Starcraft ” Lamaire showed he can ride this track on Flotilla last night and expect him to come late again on the filly.
The final European final chance comes in the Mile where AOB has Excelbration and Freddy Head has Moonlight Cloud. These are good horses in the best race of the night. The Americans have a strong hand in Wise Dan, Animal Kingdom and Obviously. Excelbration was visually as good if not better at Ascot than his nemeses Frankel and if that can be reproduced on this ultra quick surface then he’ll have too much to outgun all challengers.
Nothing I’m afraid made the trip for the Classic.
Success will be hard to come by given the limited nature of representation when added to the other factors mentioned already, then nothing is impossible.
Recommendations
Juvenile Turf Lines Of Battle 20/1 EW
Breeders Cup Turf Shareta 4/1 win
Mile Excelbration 7/4 Win
