The Derby (Group 1)

Epsom today. Picture courtesy of Alan Crowhurst and Getty Images.

On a grey day today victory in the Oaks went to Frankie Dettori. It will surely ignite the Derby tomorrow and push Cracksman into outright favouritism over Cliffs Of Moher who are joint 4/1 favourites presently.

Cracksman is trained by John Gosden who gave Frankie the leg up on the Oaks winner Enable this afternoon. He is owed by Anthony Oppenhiemer thereby reuniting the same team that was responsible for Golden Horn two years ago. There will be a rage of confidence come post time but will it be justified?

He established his Derby credentials by winning the Investec Derby Trial here a short head from Permian at the end of April. He only had the one run before that when taking a maiden last October at Newmarket. The plan was to run in the Dante but the ground came up soft and John bypassed the race instead giving him a blow out again here at the course at Breakfast For The Stars.

Permian trained by Mark Johnston is available at 10/1. He won the Dante franking the form for Cracksman beating Godolphin’s Benbati. He was building on the success he had at Listed level two weeks earlier at Newmarket, the week after his clash with Cracksman at Epsom. He’s a very different type than Cracksman. He’s improved no end and is typical of a Mark Johnston trained horse. Hard as nails he can take plenty of visits to the track and this will be his eleventh start.

Eminent was fancied for the Guineas on the back of his Craven win. He’d been put away after his two year old winning debut. At Newmarket he ran sixth, he didn’t have the gears to go with the pace over a mile and its questionable being by Frankel if he’ll have the stamina to see out the mile and half here.

There’s not a lot between the Godolphin pair Dubai Thunder and Best Solution in the betting. Both are trading around 12/1 and both are trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. Dubai Thunder is the least experienced runner in the race having only had the one previous outing. He took a Newbury maiden fifteen days ago by 10L blitzing the field. The manner of his victory was highly impressive but what he beat is questionable in terms of this challenge. Lammtarra did win the Derby in 1995 for Godolphin after having just the one run. Incidentally that was at Newbury also. He then went on to run in two more races winning both the King George and Arc. Is Dubai Thunder another Lammtarra?

Best Solution is certainly not but he did come good in the Lingfield Derby Trial where he beat Glencadam Glory by 3 1/2L That was suggestive that his second at Group 1 level last year behind Waidgest in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud was no fluke. If the thunderstorms persist and the rain gets into the ground he’ll no doubt shorten up.

Seven Irish come over.

As well as Cliffs Of Moher Aidan O’Brien sends five more and his son Joseph sends one, Rekindling. He was a surprise winner of the Ballysax Stakes which Harzand won on route to glory last year before running third in the Dante. In the Ballysax he beat his father’s Douglas Macarthur who then went on to win the Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown, also won by Harzand before Epsom last year. Capri was a head and a short head back in third. Seamie Heffernan who rides him tomorrow holds the grey in high esteem and the money came for him this week backed in from big prices to 12/1 just like it did for Winter before she won the Guineas.

Venice Beech was in the end a comfortable winner from his stable companion Wings Of Eagles in the Chester Vase with The Anvil staying on to be third . Venice Beech had the run of the race unlike Wings Of Eagles (making his seasonal debut) who had a lot more to do and in the end it was the second horse who looked the more interesting Derby prospect.

Cliffs Of Moher has been favourite since his Dee Stakes win at Chester. He was the talking horse before the race as a hot Derby prospect. He won but in workmanlike fashion. You could see there was an engine there but it wasn’t fully tuned. Tomorrow it will be but will it be good enough to win this Derby?

It’s open, wide open. Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher haven’t shown a deadly turn of foot yet. The unexposed Dubai Thunder could be anything. Wings Of Eagles has shown a glimpse of potential as did Best Solution. The Guineas is the best trial of all but Churchill isn’t here and Eminent was a fair bit back in sixth. In all the trials have been inconclusive and haven’t produced an outstanding candidate. The Ballsax and the Derrinstown races proved the most reliable last year and they could again be the yardstick.

If so added with the weight of money that came this week the dial points towards another grey day in the shape of Capri.

Recommendation: Capri  14/1 ew