The 2000 Guineas (Group 1)

The flat season bursts into life this weekend with the 2000 and 1000 Guineas meeting at Newmarket in England and the Kentucky Oaks and Derby at Churchill Downs in America.

Focus here is the 2000 Guineas and who will come out of Newmarket’s famous dip to triumph. It’s a real test for inexperienced three-year olds who can become unbalanced entering it at speed and then can’t recover in the short run to the line. Those who handle it grab the ground on the incline and then stretch out on the run up to the line. You can be sure the winner will do that.

Nineteen have been declared with Gleneagles heading the market as he has done all winter. The top two-year old of last season comes here without the hype that surrounded Australia last year but with a lot more experience at top-level than last year’s favourite. Four wins from six runs, Aidan O’Brien put him through the gears last year.

After being beaten first time out he went back to the course to win a maiden. He followed up with G3 Tyros Stakes, added the G2 Futurity Stakes, then the G1 National Stakes and finished off first past the post in France’s premier two-year old G1, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. He was disqualified for interference in the straight with Territories (promoted to second) and was placed third by the stewards.

Andre Fabre has supplemented Territories for this on the back a smooth success the Prix De Fontainebleau while the other French trained runner Freddy Head’s Ride Like The Wind was also a winner last time out in the Prix Djebel. These two first met first time out in a maiden last July when the Head horse came out on top.

Also supplemented is the Roger Varian trained Hamden Al Maktoum owned Intilaaq who won a Newbury maiden in the style of a good horse by 7 L.

Aidan also runs Ol` Man River the ante post Derby favourite.  Unbeaten in two runs, he added the Beresford Stakes to his maiden win and idle speculation over the winter was that the mile here would be too sharp. Considering the other options available with other horses for this race from Ballydoyle and also the alternative of Derby trials it says treat this one as a genuine miler in the eyes of his trainer.

The Hannon quartet (defending the race after 40/1 shot Night Of Thunder won last year) are hard to separate.

Jockey bookings ruled Richard Hughes out of riding Estidhkaar (Paul Hanagan’s choice over Intilaaq)  and Moheet (Frankie Dettori) and he’s plumed for Ivawood over Kool Kompany. Given the choice of the two he might just have got it wrong again (went with Toormore last year). The latter is very hardy and showed his liking for the dip when winning the Craven here three weeks ago.

Ivawood was beaten fair and square in the Greenham where Muhaarar and Estidhkaar fought out the finish with the latter going down a neck with Ivawood 4 1/2 L behind. Richard Hughes felt although they thought he was fit he actually wasn’t. He believes the three weeks since has sharpened him enough to overturn the tables on Estidhkaar. Frankie’s mount Moheet was a 7 L maiden winner last year and all the rage going into the Craven (going off 2/1 fav) but he didn’t handle the dip on that occasion trailing in third 3 1/4 L behind Kool Company.

Qatar Racing will rely on the Ger Lyons trained Capella Sansevero with the withdrawal of Elm Park, the Racing Post winner of last year, as he won’t be risked on the good to firm ground. Capella Sansevero was purchased last year at the inaugural Royal Ascot sale topping the bill. He ran in the Coventry Stakes getting beaten by the Wow Signal when asked to do too much by Jamie Spencer. Overall his form would suggest he’s not far off top-level and he ran well here in the Middle Park when fourth, expect Andrea Atzeni to take the ride.

Hugo Palmer is sweet on the Home Of The Brave who took the European Free Handicap where he accounted for Faydhan the second favourite for this all through the winter.

No other horse in the field has achieved anything like what Gleneagles achieved as a two-year old yet he’s easy to back today as big as at 4/1 in places. Maybe this weakness is connected to the withdrawal of stablemates Found and Together Forever from the 1000 Guineas. The lack of confidence is concerning and looking elsewhere for some value may be the best thing.

If there’ s an upset it might come from Kool Company or Capella Sansevero. Both have track experience. The former may be given a soft lead and could then dictate. The question with the latter his ability to stay the mile but at 66/1 he’s worth the punt.

Recommendation : Kool Company 28/1 EW and Capella Sansevero 66/1 EW