The money has come for Kingston Hill this morning. 11/2 overnight he’s now a 4/1 shot. The ground rides good to firm despite 3mm of rain overnight. The difference for the Varian team between this week and last week is that the drop of rain should be enough to take the sting out.
The Fugue is on the drift from 2/1 to 5/2 as the sponsors attempt to take her on. This reflects the depth of the race. It’s only 17 days since she beat Magician, Treve and Mukhadram at Royal Ascot in the Prince’s Of Wales over this 10 f trip. It’s now considered her favourite as she excelled last year at Leopardstown in the Irish Champion Stakes ahead of Al Kazeem and Trading Leather.
As well as Kingston Hill four other three year olds get the weight for age allowance. The Guineas winner Night Of Thunder had the form overturned with Kingman in the St James’s Palace Stakes where War Command ran on to be third. Richard Hannon’s colt might find the trip brings him to the edge of his stamina whereas War Command looks likely to benefit from the step up in trip. True Story didn’t stay in the Derby and he will surely benefit from the drop in trip. The Dante run behind the Great Gatsby shouldn’t be forgotten.
The two four year olds come from Ireland. Last years Irish Derby winner ran a moderate race at Newmarket over 12 f in early May. Likewise his trainer Jim Bolger also had a moderate start to the season but between Fairyhouse on Wednesday and Leopardstown on Thursday he’s had 7 runners of which 4 won and 2 were second.
Verrazano is getting better, third in the Lockinge, second in the Queen Anne to Toronado both over the mile he goes a furlong further than his best performance when he won the Haskell Invitational over 9 f. Tullius is going the other way second in the Lockinge he could only manage fourth in the Queen Anne.
The 17 day gap since The Fugue’s last run will encourage to the opposition. In high summer it might not affect her but she did break the track record which would have required some exertion.
A cracking race, the first meeting of the generations this year. The three year old’s look to be above average this year and the weight advantage might pay this afternoon. The Derby and Guineas form is hot and arguably the Derby is the hotter. Kingston Hill was the best stayer in the race beaten by an exceptional speedster in Australia . The trip is the question here. He might just find this trip too sharp on ground that not ideal.
The one who could have the cards fall his way is True Story. He hated Epsom, the trip, the switchback nature of the track and the chamber all of which blunted his natural talent and curtailed the one thing you need to win this race today, pace. This won’t be short for pace and weight for age can put Kieron Fallon and Godolphin back in the limelight.
Recommendation : True Story 16/1 ew