Irish Derby (Group 1)

“They never get it right, it was meant to be sunny today”.

“They never get it right it was meant to be raining today”.

The two things you hear said most often in Ireland every summer.

The beauty of the Irish weather is its unpredictably. The painful phrase that all Irish people have grown up to. It means “expect to get pissed on”

When dealing with high class proven animals the major consideration one must have is the going. Treve taught us an invaluable lesson last week. She didn’t handle good to firm whereas The Fugue did. As John Gosden said come autumn in Paris instead of high summer at Ascot and the chances are that The Fugue would have no chance.

Similarly here at the Curragh in what is effectively a match between Australia and Kingston Hill, first and second at Epsom, the major consideration is the prevailing ground.

The Curragh authorities have been left with a most difficult balancing act.

Aidan O’Brien has strongly intimated that should the surface be slow he will not repeat the mistake he made when running Camelot two years ago and he will go the route John Oxx did with Sea The Stars and wait for the Eclipse next week.

Roger Varian on the other hand wants it no worse than decent but the more give the greater the chance his horse, Kingston Hill will have to shine.

5 mm of rain fell Thursday night on the track to leave it remaining good to firm.

Advantage Australia, as they would say in Wimbledon, so much so it risks the scenario that the match won’t happen at all.

Tempting as it might be to run when Roger put’s his head in the fridge and think’s back to the Guineas he’ll surely conclude that there will be another day for his stable star.

What do you do if your track manager?

Water tonight just enough to take the jar out which will leave it good to firm?

Come post time tomorrow evening it will most likely be on the quicker side of good to firm.

Whew, Australia will be there to romp home as Kingston Hill drives out the gate.

Or

Water tonight enough to leave it good?

Whew, Australia and Kingston Hill will be there to fight out a tremendous battle.

Of course you run the risk that the artificial intervention will be followed by the beauty of the Irish weather in which case Kingston Hill will be there to romp home as Australia drives out the gate.

If he does then Geoffrey Chaucer will get his chance to put Epsom behind him. Tailed off last 90 Ls in arrears of the winner says forget the run, it doesn’t matter, he’s a hell of a lot better than that.  The others who ran at Epsom Fascinating Rock, Kingfisher and Orchestra all have over 10 L to find and would look to be running for places. The one who never made Epsom was Ponfeigh who instead prepped at Navan over 10 F. He had Maskoon 3 3/4 Ls behind him who ran a decent race in the Premier Handicap tonight to be third.

One thing for sure, as any Irish person will tell you, the beauty of the Irish weather is one pain in the hole.

Recommendation : If one drops out stick Ponfeigh in the forecast with the one who hasn’t.