2000 Guineas (Group 1)

The 2000 Guineas is upon us.

After final declaration stage 14 go to post for the first classic of the season.

It’s a much anticipated race with the clash of Kingman and Australia who to date have had three runs apiece none of which have been at top level.

The market rates the pair superior to the three colts who were the leading performers last year.

War Front, the Dewhurst winner, Kingston Hill, the Racing Post winner and Toormore the Irish National Stakes are all considered inferior to the pair of Group 3 winners.

Talk and what the eye has seen are responsible for this abberation.

Both John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien chose easier paths for the market leaders in their juvenile careers yet neither have hidden their own views that both colts are held in the highest esteem.

Kingman won his maiden in the style of a good colt last June and then matched the performance in winning the Solario Stakes (G3) at Sandown on the last day of August. Content he’d done enough he was put away for the winter with Greenham (G3) selected as the target for his comeback run. He put in an ultra impressive performance which saw him usurp the winter favourite this race, Australia.

It’s as much about what Aidan has said about Australia as it is about what we have seen on the track.

At Leopardstown last September in The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Trial (G3) he blew away the odds on shot Free Eagle by 6 L. The latter had already been installed Derby favourite on the back of a very impressive maiden win previously. This impeccably bred son of Galileo out of Quija Board has been described as the best talent to have graced Ballydoyle since Istabraq. Prior to the meeting with Free Eagle he was beaten first time out when he dwelt at the start and then was an easy winner of his maiden three weeks later in July.

War Command came to our attention last year at Royal Ascot when scooting up in the Coventry by 6 L. He was then beaten in the Phoenix (G1) before adding the Futurity (G2) and the Dewhurst (G1), Europe’s most prestigious juvenile race.

Kingston Hill had three runs in his two year old season. A maiden win at Newbury was followed by the Autumn Stakes (G3) here before in his final racecourse appearance where he took the Racing Post Trophy (G1) at Doncaster.

Richard Hannon is triple handed with Toormore last years leading juvenile being the choice of Richard Hughes. He won a Leicester maiden on route to the taking Goodwood’s Vintage Stakes (G2) before finishing off with a trip to Ireland to take the National Stakes (G1). He showed his well being with a bloodless victory in the Craven Stakes (G3) here three weeks ago. The unbeaten Shifting Power and Night Of Thunder support.

Mainland Europe’s challenge goes beyond the French pair of Bookrunner and Charm Sprit. Spain is represented by Noozhah Canarais who was just touched off on Arc day in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1). Mikel Delzangles knows what it takes to win a Guineas having sprung a surprise in the shape of Makfi in 2010 as does Freddy Head who did it in the saddle in 1982 on Zino. Their representatives are closely matched on Prix Djebel (G3) running in April when a 1/4 L separated the pair in favour of the Head colt.

Godolphin have the forgotten horse here. Outstrip had five runs as a juvenile and his form improved with every run. He beat stable companion True Story (Feilden winner this year) first time out then went down a 1/4 L to Toormore in the Vintage. He then took the Champange (G2) at Doncaster before going down a 2 3/4 L to War Command in the Dewhurst.  He finished off in style at Santa Anita where the won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) a 1/2 L from Giovanni Boldini.

Ertijaal won’t lack fitness as he had two runs this term at Lingfield where he was crowned the new 3 Year Old All Weather Champion last time out.

The ground will be near perfect come post time tomorrow. John Gosden will walk the course in precautionary mode before giving the all clear to Kingman. It will ride good to firm, good in places and won’t be a hindrance to any of the participants.

The Guineas is all are is about the future. The main protagonists will be without their cotton blankets that have kept their reputations warm through the winter. They will be exposed to the test of serious top level competition from colts who have proven themselves.

Down the Rowley mile there won’t be a hiding place.

The battle hardened Toormore, War Front, Kingston Hill and Outstrip will put it up to Kingman but although bred for middle distances it’s Australia who stands out. The manner in which he grabbed the ground and put distance between himself and Free Eagle suggests he’s a colt of exceptional quality. This is likely to be his one and only shot at a mile and his class is what will carry him through.

It’s not just the talk. It’s the manner in which he did it at Leopardstown.

Recommendation :  Australia 3/1 win

                                      Outstrip 28/1 ew

 PRIX