The Epsom Derby (Group 1)

The Big Question : Will he stay?

We’re no pedigree experts but a brief look through the pedigree on the dam’s side doesn’t say no, it screams it.Dawn Apporach is a fourth foal out of Hymn Of The Dawn. None of the other three ran beyond a mile. The mare is by Phone Trick described in the Racing Post as a high-class US sprinter, progeny often precocious, generally speedy and sometimes top class at 2.

We know after the Guineas Dawn Approach is high class at 3 also. He’s in that sense already defied his bloodline. To win the Derby he’ll have to scream freak. He won’t be just high class he’ll be way beyond. There will be only one word. Brilliant.

Question : Is he capable of it ?

He’s very unlike his father, New Approach. He was always on his toes, on the verge of boil over needing a lead pony in all his races to get through the preliminary’s. Dawn Approach is a completely different animal, relaxed, easy, asleep. His racing style is lazy, the minimum of effort giving you the impression there’s buckets in the tank. He finished the Guineas looking like he could stay the Gold distance of two miles never mind the mile and a half he faces here. Yes he’s capable it.

Question : Can the opposition beat him?

There’s five sons of Galileo here to take him on. That five stamina stretchers plus the another son of New Approach, a son of Monsun and a son of Sir Percy. The best of the Galileo’s is Battle Of Morengo. He’s unbeaten in five and has done all asked of him. Workmanlike is the phrase associated with him but’s that’s unfair. He beat a Group 1 winner in Loch Garman in the Derrinstown fair and square. Of the other O’Brein colts Mars makes appeal. His racecourse debut was visually appealing and it’s unlikely he was suited by the distance of the Guineas. We’ll see a much more exciting animal here.

The German challenger can’t be discounted after Danedream and Pastorius have shown the quality coming out of their breeding sheds in the last couple of years. He beat Global Bang 8 L in his prep and he went on next to take second in the German Guineas. That’s good form.

Andre Fabre isn’t making the same noises about Ocovago as he did in the build up to to Pour Moi’s success two years ago but he’s unbeaten and was an impressive winner of the Prix Greffulhe.

Conclusion : If he stay’s he wins.

We’ll witness a better horse than Frankel or Sea The Stars.

The issue is, at the price, is he worth taking him on. The answer has to be yes. There’s propers stayers in here and in Battle Of Morengo their’s certainly value for an each way punt.

Recommendation : Battle Of Morengo 11/2 e w