The Irish Derby (Group 1)
June 30, 2012
Seven go to post for a Saturday derby. The authorities bid to shake it up and make it more exciting has been let down by the weather. It’s a pity. Uncertainty hangs over the participation of Camelot.
Aidan O’Brien will be doing his best to support the race but with the ground described by the trainer as national hunt ground then logic would say you wouldn’t risk Camelot on it. There’s more showers forecast today in the afternoon and with the ground description being soft now it well may be heavy by post time this evening.
Camelot’s class carried him through the good to soft at Newmarket when winning the Guineas. His other three runs have been on a decent surface and he showed his liking for good to firm when winning the Epsom Derby where he won going away from Main Sequence by 5 L. He simply oozed class and superstar was written all over the performance. Can he repeat it at home on this winter ground?
If he comes out Aidan will rely on Imperial Monarch to lift the € 725,000 first prize. He was forced to travel widest of all in the farcical Prix Du Jockey Club avoiding the trouble on the inner however by the time he got out he had just too much to do. He was picking up and eating the ground when the line came too soon and the step up to 12 f (from the 10 f in Paris) will certainly suit. His two previous runs were at Sandown for the Derby trial and a maiden at the Curragh . It was soft in the latter and heavy in the former so he is the one who has shown ability to handle the conditions today. It’s a little surprising that Astrology is declared so soon after his efforts in the King Edward VII. He tried to make all but tired in the straight to trail home fourth. His excretions at Epsom (third to Camelot) where he went to the front after rounding Tattenham corner looked to have caught up on him. In the Dee Stakes prior to that he also showed he could handle the soft.
The Oxx pair are Born To Sea and Akeed Mofed. The former improves with every run. He ran too free in the Guineas at Newmarket and settled too well in the Irish equivalent here before staying on in the Saint James Palace behind Most Improved. He looks like a horse who is maturing and gaining in confidence and should benefit by step up in trip from a mile. Akeed Mofeed makes his belated seasonal debut having missed Epsom with a set back. He was a highly touted two year old but his speed was blunted here in the Beresford last September on heavy ground. It’s a big ask to win first time out in these conditions though he does have the engine to put it up to Camelot.
Light Heavy’s three runs this year have produced three wins, all at Leopardstown. You can’t fault the horse yet the market takes the view he didn’t beat much in the Ballysax or the Derrinstown while the Gallinule winner Speaking Of Which is also similarly dismissed by the market makers.
The race needs Camelot. The question is does Camelot need the race?
Recommendation Camelot (If he runs) Imperial Monarch (If he doesn’t)
