Four English-trained colts come to the Curragh to take on five Irish-trained colts for the Irish 2000 Guineas on ground forecast as good with some light rain expected between now and post time.

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The English Challenge

Juddmonte’s Field Of Gold, trained by John and Thady Gosden will be a short price for this.

After a reasonable but not spectacular four-race juvenile career, a G3 win in the Solario Stakes at Sandown being the highlight, he was a ready winner of the Craven Stakes first time out this season. It propelled him to favouritism for the English 2000 Guineas. There, he was given an overconfident ride and ran out of track when going down a ½L to Ruling Court. His jockey, Kieran Shoemark, put his hands up; he’s paid the price and has been replaced by Irish Champion Jockey, Colin Keane.

Juddmonte are triple-handed here as they also run Cosmic Year, trained by Harry Charton, and Windlord, trained by Andrew Balding.

Cosmic Year was an easy winner of a Sandown Maiden last year over 7f, he was then put away, making his reappearance in April at Kempton on the All-Weather. He confirmed the promise shown as a juvenile, winning easily by 5L. He was back on turf at Newmarket, in the King Charles II Stakes, a Listed contest again over 7f, where he won going away. He’ll be ridden by Oisin Murphy.

Windlord, by Dubawi out of a Goldikova mare, Goldika, also has some good form to his name. He ran third to Hotazhell in the G2 Beresford Stakes last year, beaten 1¼L. On return to the track this year, he also ran well over 1m2f in the Sandown Classic Trial, going down ¾L to Swagman. Connections have decided the mile is a better option for him now and have employed the services of Chris Hayes.

Brian Meehan’s Rashabar, the mount of Sean Levey, has run second in his last three runs. Last year, he got to within ¾L to Henri Matisse in the G1 Prix Morny and followed that up with another good display when finishing in the same berth behind Camille Pissarro in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day, beaten just a neck. He was brought back for the Greenham Stakes this year, where he finished second to Jonquil, who upheld the form when running second to Henri Mattisse in the Poulains.

The Irish Challenge

The home team is led by Officer, the main hope for Ballydoyle, and the choice of Ryan Moore. He’d one run as a juvenile, winning a Maiden cosily last August. Reintroduced to the racecourse this year, he ran third in the Gladness on soft ground when taking on older horses. He stepped up on that when taking the Tetrach back against three-year-olds (a route taken by Paddington who won this two years ago) he’d looked like he’d plenty left in the tank for this.

He’s accompanied to post by Expanded with Wayne Lordon in the saddle, again he’s triced raced. A week after winning his Maiden, he went to Newmarket for the G1 Dewhurst, where he defied lack of experience, finishing a neck second to Shadow Of Light. He couldn’t uphold the form in the 2000 Guineas when finishing ninth, well beaten by 9L.

Scarthy Champ goes for Joseph O’Brien. He won the G1 National Stakes here last year, beating Henri Matisse ¾L on good ground. Like Expanded, he was sent straight to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas, faring a little better, he finished seventh, beaten 7½L.

Jessica Harrington withdrew Hotazhell late before the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, citing the good ground as too much of a risk. He was the choice of this blog for that, based on his very good juvenile form. A winner of the G2 Beresford Stakes, he then had a nose to spare over Delacroix in the G1 Futurity Trophy Stakes over 1m at Doncaster on soft ground. High-class form indeed. The ground dilemma may rear its head again for Jessica.

The View

The English challenge is strong, Field Of Gold just came up short at Newmarket, but this will be his third big effort in a short space of time. It’s a big ask, especially at such a skinny price, even if he has the benefit of Colin Keane, he’s now an 11/10 shot. Cosmic Year is unexposed however, this is a big step up from his latest Listed win. Rasabar is appealing given his juvenile form and the performance of his latest conqueror, Jonquil, who was second in Paris. Windlord will need a career best.

Of the Irish Hotazhell’s beating of Delacroix stands out most, though now, the ground is a big concern. Rain is forecast, but will there be enough for him to take his chance? Officer looks like he’s a big improver, in the mould of Paddington, possibly. Both Scarthy Champ and Expanded were disappointing at Newmarket and would need to bounce back.

The clock says, the standout form comes not from the English 2000 Guineas, where Fields Of Gold came second, the winning time of 1m 37.28s (slow by 1.18s), but via the French version, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, won by Henri Matisse, the winning time of 1m 33.91s (fast by 1.29s), the quickest time it’s ever been run. Both were run on officially good ground. There are a few who’ll disagree with that, including the connections of Rashabar, Officer, Hotazhell and Cosmic Year. Whilst we don’t have a runner from the Poulains lining up here, we do know what the winner did to prepare for it.

Before his victory in France, Henri Matisse had a prep run in a Group 3, the Ballylinch Stud “Red Rocks” Stakes over 7f at Leopardstown run on good to yielding ground at the end of March. Although he appeared under pressure three furlongs out, he responded gamely, staying on strongly to take the lead inside the final 110 yards. It set him up perfectly for Paris.

At Leopardstown, he just got the better of the one horse we haven’t discussed, Comanche Brave, trained by Donnacha O’Brien with stable jockey Gavin Ryan in the plate.

Comanche Brave travelled smoothly that day and looked the winner up the home straight, but he was just edged out by half a length at the finish. The third-placed runner, Arizona Blaze, second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last November, went on to further boost the form, landing, when dropped in trip, the G3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly over 5½f. The race time, 1m 28.44s (fast by 0.96s).

Yet, Comanche Brave remains the outsider here, the 66/1 available on Thursday is gone, but there’s still some 50/1 available.

While his juvenile form doesn’t scream classic winner, there is encouragement when he’s been on a decent surface. First time out, he ran well in a Maiden at the Curragh, finishing fourth on good ground. He then won his Maiden at Cork on good to firm ground, both over 6f. He was stepped up to Listed level on the All-Weather at Dundalk and finished second over 7f; however, on his last run of the season, he did get bogged down on soft ground in the Killavullan Stakes when a well-beaten fourth, 8½L behind Exactly.

His comeback run at Leopardstown indicates he’s improved, and the way he ran through the line indicates he’ll appreciate the step up to a mile. Given that he wasn’t beaten far by a very good horse in Henri Matisse (a G1 winner at two and now three) and in a fast time, and that in the same race, he also had the pace to beat a good sprinter in Arizona Blaze.

You could argue that the market could have got this wrong.

At the price, Comanche Brave is a very tempting each-way play. Hotazhell could run a big one if the rain comes.

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Recommendation

Comanche Brave 50/1 ew

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