July 20, 2012
The centrepiece of the European Pattern racing season is upon us. Would you believe the first half is over. It safe to say that Aidan O’Brien dominated the game from the beginning but a late sustained comeback from John Gosden has set up a fascinating second half. An early score here at Ascot for the Newmarket team will set up a pulsating finish but a Ballydoyle strike may close out the season long before the end.
Again the absence of the Azores high (please come back) means more soft ground. Will we ever see a decent surface again?
Tipperary might be a long way from Ascot but here last year 4 L was the distance that separated Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey. A lot has been made this week about St Nick handling a right handed track but this was not an issue last year. The issue then was pace, none early, then muddling. It didn’t suit him and when Nathaniel and Workforce went for home he was caught for toe. A pacemaker this year in Robin Hood means no repeat of that particular dose. St Nick has had six runs since this time last year capturing a Breeders Cup Turf and adding another Coronation Cup to the one he won last year. Nathaniel has only had the two runs, fifth in the Champion Stakes last backend and a win in the Eclipse two weeks ago. The performance at Sandown was stylish. He dominated and when Farrah came to challenge he always had plenty left.
Sea Moon beaten 2 1/4 L by St Nick in the Breeders Cup race has also looked classy this term. At Goodwood he accounted for Dandino with a head to spare and then went on to win the Hardwicke (surely should be upgraded to Group 1) beating Dunaden by 3 1/4 L.
The French horse has a bit to prove since winning the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Cup. He hasn’t troubled the judge in his three runs since. He didn’t get a clear run in the Hardwicke and would have got closer had he got some luck in running. Previously no pace beat him at Chantilly and it was a similar situation in the Jockey Club at Newmarket in May.
Danedream produced a stunning Arc victory last year in record time beating a top class field. She went east for the Japan Cup but a combination of a wide draw and an early bump were enough to knock her off her stride (finished sixth). She won a Group 2 on her comeback at home in Baden Baden before disappointing in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud, a race again run slowly that turned into a sprint. She didn’t show the turn of foot she did in the Arc when she quickened off a fast pace. Even splits here will suit her better.
Brown Panther has been given a nice confidence booster with a 7 L win in a Pontefract Listed race having shown himself capable of mixing with them in the Ledger last year. His conqueror that day was John Gosden’s second string here Masked Marvel. He couldn’t cope with St Nick last time at Epsom. Reliable Man winner of the Prix Du Jockey Club and Prix Neil last year put up a good show behind So You Think in the Prince Of Wales ( picked up to run fourth beaten 3 L) and will like this ground.
Deep Brillante is a first runner in the King George for Japan. It’s great to see a horse come from the east. His connections sacrifice cash in favour of prestige. In winning the Japanese Derby he took home a cheque for Β£1.5m, nearly three times the win money here. Should he win he’ll be a national hero. We can’t judge the form but what we can say is that he did the mile and a half in Tokyo in a time 10 seconds quicker than Camelot did when winning at Epsom, albeit on firm ground. He also benefits from carrying the lightest weight as the only three year old in the race.
In the centrepiece pace should be even with Robin Hood and Masked Marvel expected to stretch stamina. It’l be set to wind up the runs of St Nicholas Abbey and Nathaniel. Sea Moon will try to stay with them and the three will run evenly nip and tuck to the line. With the pace even all three are venerable, finishers such as Dunaden and Deep Brillante might possess toe at the close but that toe might not be enough. The centerpiece needs a centrefold.
My blood runs cold, my Danedream is the centrefold. Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na .
Recommendation Danedream 10/1 ew
