Talent – Richard Hughes riding the 20/1 shot to win last years Oaks.

Can he turn up the Volume to do it again?

Phew. Good ground for the Oaks. Not looking so good for the Derby though.

The Oaks tends to throw up long priced winners, Talent 20/1 (2013), Was 20/1 (2012), Dancing Rain 20/1 (2011), Snow Fairy 9/1 (2010), Sariska 9/4 (2009), Look Here 33/1 (2008), Light Shift 13/2 (2007).

The reason is unexposed fillies have the potential to improve dramatically for the race. With that in mind it’s worth considering the race in this manner.

Ground

Decent ground will help the chances of Ihtimal, Amazing Maria, Dazzling, Anipa, Honour Bound, Regardez, Targhrooda, Tarfasha and Volume.

The others including the favourite Marvellous may well handle the ground but have so far preformed on ground on the soft side.

Taking the good ground performers we can reduce the field down to 9 from 17.

Ability To Stay

Let’s divide these into Probables and Possibles

Possible

Amazing Maria, Intimal, Dazzling.

(eliminate the possibles on the basis they won’t stay that extra 16 m added by moving the rail)

Probable

Anipa, Honour Bound, Regardez, Targhrooda, Tarfasha and Volume.

(these have preformed at 10 F, 11 F and 12 F).

Of the probables who has an official rating

Above 100

Taghrooda and Tarfasha

(rule out as the race winners tend to have long prices)

Below 95

Honour Bound, Regardez

(rule out as the race winners tend to have a rating over 95 )

Whose is between 97 – 99?

Anipa And Volume

The last two fit a criteria of best outsiders in a race that likes to throw up winners at big prices.

Recommendations: Anipa 40/1 ew, Volume 16/1 e w