Opposition to Australia looks thin on the ground or so the market would have us believe.

A 7/4 shot this morning the price reflects the fear the ground will come up soft by race time rather than the depth of the opposition. Should the rain not come there will only be contraction in the favourite’s price.

If ever there was a horse bred with a race in mind it has to be Australia for the Derby. By the 2001 winner Galileo out of the 2004 Oaks winner Quija Board his race record reads two from four.

He was slowly away first time out running on to be second. He took his maiden three weeks later and then closed his juvenile career with a 6 L victory over Free Eagle in September in the best two year old race run last year rightly replacing Free Eagle as Derby favourite on the back of the display.

Touted and talked about as something special he returned in the Guineas winning the battle on the near side but going down to Night Of Thunder and Kingman on the far side. A messy race was none the less satisfactory as a prep for the Derby.

We have since learnt the he did four furlongs of 11 seconds a furlong, one after another as a two year old. Exceptional. Aidan O’Brien is criticised in some sections for talking up his horses which is very unfair.

He always gives us context.

In the case of Australia he compares him to Camelot his previous best Derby horse and says he’s a step up on him.

Camelot beat eight colts in the 2012 Derby. Only one of those animals, Thought Worthy, ever won a race again when he won that years Great Volitgeur. Camelot followed up at the Curragh in dreadful ground where he beat four home and only one of those ever won again, Akeed Mofeed who won the Hong Kong Derby and Hong Kong Cup. After that Camelot was beaten in the his bid for a triple crown by Encke when under the care of Mahmood Al Zaronni, he then failed in the Arc and after a bout of colic his four year old career didn’t fire when beaten twice by Al Kazeem in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

Context, Camelot’s classic year was not vintage and he was not the horse at four that he was in his early three year old career.

Australia is a better horse than Camelot at this stage according to Aidan and he’ll need to be to win this year’s renewal. The class of 2014 look superior to their 2012 counterparts.

The principle challenge may come from home. Stablemates Geoffrey Chaucer, Kingfisher and Orchestra all line up on merit.

Geoffrey Chaucer won the Beresford as a two year old and was third to Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran in the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Fascinating Rock won in it in the stewards room on the disqualification of Ebanoran for interference. Another messy race yet it looked quality. Rumour has it (denied by Aidan) Geoffrey Chaucer subsequently beat Australia in a piece of work on the gallops which is why the money has come for him in recent weeks.

Dermot Weld will have been well pleased with the run of Tarfasha in the Oaks which can only encourage one on the chances of Fascinating Rock. You can take it that John Oxx won’t be going to Epsom for a day out either. Three runners in the the Derby before, two winners Sinndar, Sea The Stars and a third with Alamshar.

Orchestra got home a nose from Romsdal in the Chester Vase won last year by Ruler Of The World. He travelled beautifully and really caught the eye only tiring inside the last 100 yards. Kingfisher was also impressive in the Dee Stakes the next day.

The Dante form reads well for Peter Chapple-Hyam after The Grey Gatsby’s win in the French Derby. Arod was a 3/4 L second and will surely relish the step up in trip. Saeed Bin Suroor will also be encouraged that True Story’s season is not over. He was odds on when beaten into third. The rejuvenated Kieren Fallon says he possess more speed than any of his previous Derby winners Oath, Kris Kin or North Light. Sudden Wonder the mount of Kevin Manning, all change at Godolphin, ran third in the Lingfield Derby Trial won by the absentee Snow Sky.

The Racing Post winner Kingston Hill could provide a bitter-sweet moment for Derek Smith should he beat the favourite. Owned by his son Paul this part of the family will be happy to see the rain arrive.

Western Hymn will try to provide the Oaks Derby double for John Gosden. The winner of the Sandown Classic Trial previously beat Snow Sky and if the money comes for him we’ll know they’ve worked him with Taghrooda the impressive Oaks winner.

This morning the bookies want to get the favourite and what should be an odds on shot has been pushed out to a generous 7/4 . Rain overnight has been a drizzle not a deluge which makes the price of Australia very attractive.

His third in a top class Guineas means he’s got that sub 11 second speed Aidan told us about yet he’s bred for this trip.

Producing that speed coming round Tatthenham corner and the ability to stay says he’ll blitz them.

As an alternative Ebanoran can add to the Oxx bow.

Recommendation : Australia 7/4 win

                                     Ebanoran 16/1

                                    Both in the Reverse F/C