Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1)

12 will go to post for the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday with a trio travelling from England.

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The English Challenge

Ollie Sangter sends Flight and Simmering, bought acquitted themselves well when chasing home Desert Flower in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket three weeks ago in second and third, beaten 1L and 2L respectively. They’ll be ridden as they were at Newmarket by Dylan Browne McGonagle and Oisin Murphy. Archie Watson also picks up the baton with Duty First travelling under regular Hollie Doyle, she also contested at Newmarket coming home ninth 12L adrift of the winner.

The Irish Challenge

Heading the market is Aidan O’Brien’s Lake Victoria under Ryan Moore. Trading as the 10/11f she lost her unbeaten record at Newmarket, finishing sixth, she was beaten 2½L. Aidan had warned us that she had been held up in her work and would need the run. She had a stunning juvenile career, winning 5, including 3 Group 1’s, The Moyglare Stakes over 7f in September, where she beat Simmering 1¼L, the Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f in October, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1m in November.

It’s May, but it’s January who fills the second string for Ballydoyle. Not seen since a brace of seconds behind Desert Flower in the G2 May Hill at Doncaster, where she was beaten 1½L (Flight ¾L behind in third), and G1 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket, where she was beaten 5½L this time.

Dermot Weld’s Juddmonte filly Swelter has had just the two runs. She was a cosy winner of a Leopardstown Maiden over 1m last summer and didn’t see the racecourse again until the Ballylinch Stud “Priory Belle” Stakes over 7f, where she was an impressive winner under stable jockey Chris Hayes, who’ll once again be in the plate.

Donnacha O’Brien has supplemented Atsila. She made her debut this year in April, winning a Bellewstown Maiden, coming from last to first to win going away. She was pitched straight into Pattern Company in the G3 Athasi Stakes over 1m here at the Curragh three weeks ago and took it all in her stride to win snugly from Joe Murphy’s Cercene by a ½L, who reappears here under Gary Carroll. Her form ties in with Swelter, who had her measure in the “Priory Belle” when third beaten 1¾L.

Adrian Murray runs a pair, Amo’s California Dreamer with David Egan on top and Jaliyah with Colin Keane in the plate, both have plenty to find. The former is 1 from 8, a Maiden at Dundalk, the latter comes back in trip having run second in the Naas Oaks Trial Stakes over 1m2f where Taman Desert trained locally by EJ O’Neill ran fifth for owner Jaber Abdullah.

The intrigue in the race has to be City Of Memphis, trained by Paddy Twomey, she’s also been supplemented for this, as always, Billy Lee will partner. She only once raced, taking a Maiden at Naas three weeks ago over 6f. She won as she liked picking up really nicely and won going away by 2¾L. Paddy doesn’t pitch them in for the fun. A strike rate this season of 43%, 16 winners from 37 runners, is testament to that.

The View

A typically competitive Irish 1,000 Guineas. The form of the English race could well be turned over with Lake Victoria expected to come on a ton from her Newmarket run. She was imperious as a two-year-old, and she’ll no doubt recapture her form this year. Swelter will be thereabouts as will Ollie Sangster’s pair, Flight and Simmering. Donnacha O’Brien’s Atslia isn’t out of it either, however…..

Her biggest danger?

It has to be Paddy Twomey’s City Of Memphis. If he thinks she’s good enough to take on these fillies, then the rest of us need to listen.

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Recommendation

City Of Memphis 16/1 ew

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