Baaeed will make his final racecourse appearance and will justify favoritism finishing his career unbeaten. His odds will be prohibitive and at 1/4, he is not a betting prospect, however, there is a punting angle to be had in the race.
Third in this last year at odds of 40/1, Mac Swiney could make well make the frame again. He’s available at 80/1 to do so with three places paying 1/5 of the odds and in the market “without Baaeed” he’s available at 33/1 with three places paying a 1/5 of the odds also.
He’s had two runs this year, he didn’t trouble the judge in either, the first in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, he was beaten 9L, the second in the International Stakes, he was beaten 6L, both runs were over 10f on good ground. The ground is the key to him. He won the Irish 2000 Guineas in 2021 on soft to heavy ground beating stable companion Poetic Flare and ran fourth in the Derby to Adayar on good to soft.
His third in this last year was on good to soft, beaten 2¼L he was denied a clear run, he went to challenge on the outside but had to switch inside when Dubai Honour hung into him and he may well have made the winner and second work a lot harder had he not been checked at a vital time.
Second favourite for this is Adayar, a 6/1 chance in the market and 9/10 in the w/o Baaeed market, it’s worth noting he finished fifth last year, 4¾L behind Mac Swiney.
Baaeed will win it but don’t be surprised if Mac Swiney runs into the top four.
Recommendation
Main Market – Mac Swiney 80/1 ew (½ point)
w/o Baaeed – Mac Swiney 33/1 ew (1 point)
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