The track at the Curragh was hit with 35mm of rain on Thursday night rendering the course unraceable on Friday. A cautionary inspection was held at 7.30 this morning and racing will go ahead on a heavy surface.
As it stands twelve are to go to post. Who’ll appreciate the ground the most is the question?
Lucky Vega, the favourite, trained by Jessica Harrington, and ridden by Shane Foley loved the fast ground at Newmarket and while his G1 win in last year’s Phoenix Stakes came on good to yielding you would think heavy will blunt his speed. Likewise, Charlie Appleby’s La Barrosa whose Craven second to Master Of The Seas took on a new shine after the latter’s second to Poetic Flare at Newmarket, however, the Craven was run on good to firm, he’s reunited with William Buick. The other visitor, Hugo Palmer’s The Rosstarfarrion, the least experienced in the field, ran on soft at Pontefract but he could only manage third, he’s the benefit of Coilin Keane on his back.
The one’s that have won on poor ground include the Ballydoyle trio, Battleground won the Chesham on soft, Van Gogh, the Criterium International at Saint Cloud on heavy and Wembley, a Roscommon maiden on soft to heavy. Jim Bolger’s pair have also done it, Poetic Flare won his Maiden here the first day of the season last year on soft to heavy, and MacSwiney took the Vertem Furutity on heavy. Kevin Predergast’s Monaasib also won his Maiden at Cork on yielding to soft and Andy Slattery’s Rebel Step took a Nursey at Thurles on soft.
It will be difficult to see the winner coming from outside that group.
At Newmarket the money came late for Battleground, 8/1 when the market opened on course he was smashed into 9/2F just before the off. The weight of cash suggested the on-track performance, distinctively ordinary, was not expected, a post race examination by the vet found nothing abnormal. This time round jockey bookings rank him third of the Aidan O’Brien trained runners, he’ll be in the hands of Wayne Lordon.
Front ranked, it would appear, is Wembley with Ryan Moore in the plate. He also had a run to forget at Newmarket and his post-race examination also found nothing abnormal. Van Gogh was the best of the Ballydoyle contingent but that was still 7L in arrears of the winner, Poetic Flare. He is a G1 winner, the win in France over a mile on heavy last year. Seamie Heffernan will get the leg up.
In any other year you’d expect the Newmarket Guineas winner to go off a short price favourite for this. Poetic Flare looked the real deal there, overcoming inexperience in the first half of the race, he settled well and ran all the way to the line showing battling qualities to hold off Master Of The Seas and Lucky Vega.
Then France last week. The plan was simple, win all three Guineas in England, France and Ireland, all in the space of the first three weeks in May.
He broke well, Kevin having him well-positioned early, then Christophe Smoullion coming upsides on Sealiway locked the door. Rounding the bend coming into the straight there were three in front of him and he’d nowhere to go. Kevin had to pull him wide to get a run but by the time he saw daylight, it was too late, his last furlong was his best where he did make up considerable ground.
MacSwiney, won the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster last year over a mile on heavy. On his comeback run this year he stepped up in trip for the Derrinstown Derby Trial where he ran sixth to Bolshoi Ballet. The drop back in trip may well suit and a good run here may well see him go onto Epsom. Rory Cleary is rewarded with the saddle.
Joseph Murphy has his team in good form and Gary Carroll will hold the reigns on Agrimony for him. He won a Gowan Maiden over a mile from Donnacha O’Brien’s Emporio, Gavin Ryan retains the ride, the pair pulling well clear with Agrimony settling matters inside the final furlong. This is a big step up for both, a comment that also applies to Andy Slattery’s Rebel Tale who also won over a mile on soft last year. He’ll be back in the hands of Ben Coen.
There’s depth to Monaasib’s form having been ¾L off High Definition in last year’s Beresford. the whip will be held by Chris Hayes. He needs to find 1½L with Poetic Flare on the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, his comeback run this year.
The ground will have a huge say in the outcome here, form in the book on heavy and a previous top level success narrows this down to the Bolger pair and Van Gogh whom the money has come for.
Jim Bolger will hope the exertions of Newmarket, and Paris, not only the races but the travel as well, won’t have taken the edge off Poetic Flare. It’s a lot to ask but he has to be encouraged by the last furlong in Paris. He still the one to beat. The biggest fear Kevin Manning has, MacSwiney, he’ll relish the ground the most, he hasn’t quite the class of Poetic Flare, over a mile, as yet.
Recommendation: Poetic Flare 6/1 win