The Craven meeting brings classic thoughts hidden in deep winter into focus. Dreams of Guineas glory over long dark nights can disappear in a flash as was the case with the long-standing second favourite Faydhan yesterday in the Free Handicap.
The Craven is a Guineas trial over course and distance but it’s a long time since a Craven winner returned in May to capture the main event. That’s not to say it hasn’t produced great winners, Dancing Brave in 1986, Ajdal the year after, Twice Over in 2008, Toronado in 2013 however you have to go back Tirol in 1990 to find the last Craven winner to triumph on the first Saturday in May.
Off course the preference now for trainers is to miss the trials completely and instead go straight to the Guineas. This does somewhat diminish the trails unless of course their is a performance that cannot be ignored.
Of the seven runners lining up here early prices of around 3/1 and 7/2 would suggest Moheet and Nafaqa will dispute favoritism however in the ante post market for the 2000 Guineas there are respectively 20/1 and 33/1 shots.
Moheet had the one run at Salisbury in October where he ran out a 7L winner.
Nafaqa is much more experienced. Introduced in the Chesham at Royal Ascot where he ran fourth, he stepped up to win a maiden following up with a listed win at Doncaster before running second in the Royal Lodge to Elm Park who then went on to win the Dewhurst.
Kool Company is the most experienced in the field, having run nine times as a juvenile. He’s a five time winner including the Railway Stakes at the Curragh where he had the measure of War Envoy by 3 3/4 L on a good to firm surface.
War Envoy had eight visits the course. He’s also hardy and tough and in those runs there are some nuggets of good form. He ran second in last years Champagne Stakes (Aces back in third) and although turned over on his seasonal debut at Dundalk he was beaten by a good Ger Lyons colt in Convergence.
Luca Cumani’s White Lake is an interesting contender. After a maiden win he was fourth to Nafaqa in the Doncaster race. What’s interesting is that Luca doesn’t tend to put them into early season battle unless he’s see’s something.
David O’Meara is now responsible for Hail The Hero who transferred from Aidan O’Brien over the winter. He won his maiden at Doncaster on debut for the new yard and also has good form in the book. He was beaten a neck by Vert De Grace, a colt who went on to be beaten 3/4 L by the Guineas favourite Gleneagles in the Futurity Stakes following up with a G1 win in France at the end of the season in the Criterium International at Saint Cloud.
We mightn’t see a Guineas winner here yet this race will certainly give us a bearing on that race. Aidan O’Brien will come home from Newmarket knowing where he stands with Gleneagles and with a run under his belt this year his War Envoy represents the best value in today’s market.
Recommendation : War Envoy 11/2 win