Rain. Will it? Won’t it?
If it does how deep will it get into the Leopardstown ground that is now good to firm.
Enough to put some juice in or enough to turn it good to soft?
Roger Charlton put the defeat of Al Kazeem at York in the International down to the fast ground that day and a little bit of freshness from the break since the Eclipse. He will be praying the forecast rain will be heavier than the 10mm predicted. While 10mm will be enough to put some juice in it won’t be enough to put cut in it. Al Kazeem would be best suited to cut.
He’s the only one of the principles who want to see the rain fall. Declaration Of War proved at York the quicker it is the better for him. The same applies to Trading Leather who just fell short in the International. Both loved hearing their feet rattle across the Knavesmire and in the end the 1 3/4 L that separated them at the line might have had more to do with how the race panned out than the ability of the animal.
Kevin Manning took it on and set the pace at York. He had hoped to take the sting out of the others especially the kick of Toranado but in the end there was no need to worry about that as Toranado was already a spent force after two furlongs. The pace was dream like for Joseph O’Brien who just had to sit off it and press the button in time to let his mount time to get into top gear to power to the line. He said in his post race interview it was his fault he got beat in the Eclipse for not giving Declaration Of War the time to wind up.
The Fugue also loved the ground at York in the Oaks. She powered home on the fast proving herself far superior to her own sex and also put the run in the Eclipse well behind her. The drop in trip to 10 f from 12 f against the boys is the concern.
Two Dewhurst winner’s make the line up.
Aidan O’Brien’s has decided to let Kingsbarns take his chance though surely it’ll be some feat to come out and win this on his seasonal debut. He met a setback before the Guineas and has been given time to recuperate. He was a good winner of the Dewhurst last year on soft ground 17 days after winning his maiden at Navan on a similar surface. If the rain does come he’ll be backed lower than 6/1 on offer now.
Jim Bolger’s 2011 winner Parish Hall, second string here, missed the entire campaign last year through injury and though he made a pleasing enough return at the Curragh in April he then ran below expectations in a Group 3 behind Camelot in May. Jim reported him well earlier this week describing him as a horse who would prefer quick conditions. While reticent to say he couldn’t win he was more pointing to the chances of Trading Leather whom he believed would have a better chance if the predicted easier conditions materialise.
Dermot Weld will be loving the news that the rain’s coming. His mare Princess Highway hasn’t sparkled since beating the Fugue 6 L at Royal Ascot last year in the Ribblesdale. Like Al Kazeem she’ll like some cut but form this year has been disappointing. She was beaten 2 1/2 L in the Blue Wind at Naas in May by Euphrasia when that filly sprung a 33/1 surprise (at 100/1 this time she’ll have to spring a threefold one here). At the Curragh last time in the Pretty Polly she couldn’t handle the firm and was beaten 7 L by Ambivalent. Any deluge will increase her chances.
The form of the Eclipse and International suggests there is little between Declaration OF War, Al Kazeem and Trading Leather. The factor which will influence most is the ground. Kingbarns and Parish Hall are on the comeback mission but were both high quality two year olds. The fillies The Fugue and Princess Highway are more 12 f than 10 f horses.
It’ll come down to the ground and if it’s 10mm of rain then Trading Leather will cope better than the War and both are just that tiny bit classier than Al Kazeem.
Recommenation : Trading Leather 6/1 win