Favourite’s have a poor record in the Oaks.
Only three have won in the last ten years, Eswaarah, Alexandrova and Sariska. All won at odds around the 5/2 mark. In the last five years, Was and Dancing Rain have gone in at 20/1, Snow Fairy at 9/1 and Look Here at 33/1.
Fillies competing in the Oaks tend to be inexperienced and thus unexposed, truth is we don’t know how good they are until after the winning post.
This years favourite is Secret Gesture an impressive winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial where she easily picked off the opposition to win by 10 L from Miss You Two, who takes her on again. The latter’s connections will likely change tactics having failed to hold up last time she will most likely be allowed bowl along.
Secret Gesture will race in the Qatar Racing colours who this week acquired a half share in the Ralph Beckett trained filly. They’ll be hoping for a classic double following their success at the Curragh last Sunday with Just The Judge.
The latter’s form via the English Guineas is put to the test here with Moth and Roz coming from the Newmarket race to contest here. Moth ran third 2 L behind Sky Lantern and 1 1/2 L behind Just The Judge and on breeding is set to be more suited to the 12 f . Prior to that she was an easy winner of a Curragh maiden in April having failed to win at the same level in two attempts as a juvenile. Roz never got in a blow at Newmarket finishing tenth though she has proved herself a good filly already with a second in last year’s Fillies Mile and she will also appreciate the step up in trip.
The other won tight in the market is the Sir Michael Stoute trained Liber Nauticus. She won the Musidora at York on only her second run in unconvincing style. It was a muddling race and her price is short enough considering what she’s achieved and what she’ll have to cope with at Epsom.
The first two in the Cheshire Oaks renew rivalry. Banoffee had a 1 1/4 L to spare over Gertrude Verse at Chester. Hughie Morrison trainer of the winner said at the time he’d left plenty to work on.
The Newmarket Pretty Polly winner Talent is the second string from the Ralph Beckett yard. She won on good to firm which is a plus beating Madame Defarge in the process while the Ballydoyle second string Say won a Cork maiden by 9 L on soft. What she beat was not a lot but it was still a wide margin victory.
On balance the reliability of Moth’s Guineas run puts her slightly ahead of Secret Gesture’s Lingfield run however neither are value and a chance is taken with Roz as an each way prospect.
She’s one of the more experienced fillies in the race who twice before has surprised at big prices winning at 40/1 and 28/1, the latter on G/F. She only found Certify too good at Ascot last year in the Fillies Mile and is therefore the only one proven at Group 1 level as a juvenile.
Recommendation : Roz 50/1 e w